New Zealand’s inflation outlook brightened slightly in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey. The survey of 40 business leaders and professional forecasters found that two‑year inflation expectations slipped to 2.28% in Q3 from 2.29% in the previous quarter【84206022385746†L153-L160】. This minor drop keeps expectations comfortably within the RBNZ’s target range of 1% to 3%【84206022385746†L153-L167】.

The slight decline in expected inflation comes as most respondents anticipate the central bank will cut the cash rate at its next meeting【84206022385746†L153-L160】. Survey participants predicted that annual price increases will average 2.37% over the next year, down from 2.41% previously【84206022385746†L169-L170】. Falling expectations may give policymakers confidence that price pressures are easing and that further rate cuts are warranted to support the slowing economy.

Lower inflation expectations can also help households and businesses plan for the year ahead. If price increases are expected

For more ways to stay financially secure, explore our guide on health insurance options in New Zealand for 2025 to ensure you and your family are protected from unexpected medical costs. to remain moderate, wage and price negotiations may become less heated, potentially easing the cost‑of‑living pressures facing New Zealanders. As the RBNZ prepares for its next policy meeting, the Q3 survey results suggest there is room to stimulate growth without fuelling runaway inflation.